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Hanson courts Joyce, Coalition discord escalates.

Prominent Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce has announced he will not contest his seat of New England at the 2028 federal election over irreconcilable differences with Nationals leadership, One Nation courts Joyce’s defection.

Published

6 months ago

October 21, 2025

Dominic Wexler

Prominent Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce has announced he will not contest his seat of New England at the 2028 federal election over irreconcilable differences with Nationals leadership, One Nation courts Joyce’s defection.

The Liberal National Party remains discordant. Prominent Nationals politician Barnaby Joyce has declared that he will not re-contest his New England seat at the next federal election. He will remain in his seat until the election of 2028, but at that point will not attempt to keep it. Sensing an opportunity, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has encouraged Mr Joyce to defect and join her right-wing populist party, an option he has left open.

A staunch opponent of net zero, Mr Joyce’s position on climate change has contributed to the irreconcilable divisions within the Coalition. He has described the breakdown of relations with his leader, David Littleproud, as “irreparable,” citing differences of policy and ideology.

Mr Joyce attributed his decision not to run for the Nationals in the next federal election to several factors. These included the instructions he received to confine his campaign during the previous election to New England, on the grounds that “that did not represent the views of the Nationals”, as well as the party’s refusal to drop support for net zero emissions by 2050. The political marginalisation he subsequently faced in the lower house cemented his choice.

“…I am seated in the far corner of the Coalition in the chamber…That is not who I want to be.” -Joyce

Mr Littleproud expressed a desire for Mr Joyce to remain a member of the Nationals, but Senator Hanson has publicly invited him to join One Nation, a party she believes is better suited to his politics:

“They are in a Coalition, doesn’t matter if the Nationals or Littleproud go along with this, you can’t convince the Coalition, you can’t convince the Liberals to do it, the Coalition has so many wet blankets in there who in this [net zero] and it’s not going to change.” -Hanson

Littleproud has described Mrs Hanson’s One Nation as a “protest party,” and voiced his desire for Joyce to remain with the Nationals party, stating that he still “has a contribution to make between now and when he retires,” provided he remains with the Coalition.

Should Mr Joyce defect, it would mark yet another instance of intra-party chaos within the LNP, and an escalation following Andrew Hastie’s recent resignation from Coalition Leader Sussan Ley’s frontbench. However, there is a case to be made that the New England MP’s exit is advantageous to the Opposition. Losing Mr Joyce will in the short term result in a numerically diminished Coalition in Parliament, but it will free up the party to ideologically reposition itself on the economy, social issues, and the environment. A shift in narrative is particularly important given the LNP’s loss of inner-city support, which is currently favouring climate-conscious teals and independents.

With ideological figures such as Mr Joyce no longer exerting influence on the party room, the LNP could have policy debates that would have been impossible during Dutton’s more conservative leadership. A Joyce defection may seem like it would be a coup for Mrs Hanson, but Australia’s compulsory voting system tends to offer an advantage to moderates by keeping out parties who rely on culture wars and grievance politics to garner support. Moreover, with the next federal election still three years away, there is still plenty of runway for Sussan Ley’s Coalition to redefine itself.

Despite protests from colleagues, including Liberal frontbencher Jonno Duniam, Mr Joyce intends to complete his term. Mr Joyce has informed the press he has not joined One Nation, but did not explicitly rule out the possibility.

“I will not be standing for New England again but will complete my term as promised at the last election…I am free to now consider all options as to what I do next…There was nothing locked in, nothing … let’s take it down a step. I have not joined One Nation,”” -Joyce

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