One Nation’s Massive Surge: What’s Really Happening?

Authors: Thought Digest Media

his content was originally published by Thought Digest Media (an affiliated brand) and is republished here by TDMG. You can access the original video here

Two months ago, we explored whether the Coalition could hold off One Nation’s rise, and stop it from entering the political mainstream.

Since then, polling suggests that shift may already be underway. New data from DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog places One Nation at around 21–23% primary vote support, on par with the Coalition and well ahead of the Greens.

If sustained, this represents one of the most significant realignments in Australian politics in decades.

We also observed that taken together, both One Nation and the Greens (based on recent polls) make up 1/3rd of Australian votes, which suggests the previous narrative “populism and fringe politics doesn’t work in Australia” is fracturing, or is at least coming under more scrutiny.

In this video, we break down the numbers, examine why One Nation is succeeding, and assess what this rise means for the Coalition, the major parties, and the broader political system. We also look at the risks ahead for One Nation, including organisational issues and whether populist momentum can translate into stable governance.