The Battle For Clark, Who Will Take Over From An Independent Powerhouse?

While Andrew Wilkie is expected to continue another term, each year circles speculate on who will replace the political stalwart and for some it appears a battle for Clark has already begun as other independents consolidate their support on the state and local level. So who are the contenders, how has Clark voted in the past and what will things look like in the future?

How Clark Votes

Historically the seat of Clark has been a bit of an odd one. In the early 20th century, the division of Denison (now Clark) had been somewhat volatile, flipping between the labor party and various conservative groups. During the late 40s the seat shifted to a solid Liberal seat up until the mid 70s where the seat regularly returned incumbents. First gained by Liberal Michael Hodgman (father of former Premier Will Hodgman), then voting in Labor’s Duncan Kerr for 23 years and now Andrew Wilkie serving his 16th year.

The seat pivoted to the left in the early 90s, turning hard in the 2010s. At the state level a similar pattern occurred. Over the years a higher proportion of higher educated voters, government workers, renters and the rise of the greens shifted Clark away from the major parties. At the heart of the electorate are core issues include government accountability, the environment, health, housing affordability and social policy just to name a few. The conservative vote going towards outer suburban middle class families, specific cultural/religious groups and small business owners.

At the state level over 64% of Clark voted left, while 82% either voted for Wilkie or another progressive party at the 2025 Federal Election in Clark.

The Realistic Contenders

By pure numbers alone, Wilkie is by far the most established, strongly supported, and well known politician in Tasmania as of 2025, with contenders somewhat distant.

The closest to compare being Jeremy Rockliff, the current Premier who obtained 31.5% of the Braddon vote in the 2025 State Election. Then following likely being Jacqui Lambie and a combination of other state and federal politicians.

Despite this, Wilkie’s future with Clark has been put into question. In early 2025 with TDMG he did not confirm if he would stand at the 2028 federal election. While the public may anticipate he will take “another crack at it” there is all the possibility that he wont. Late last year Tasmanian Greens Senator Peter Whish-Wilson announced his retirement at age 57, with him exiting the senate at age 60. Right now Mr Wilkie is 64 years old, and by the time of the 2028 election will be 66-67. Wilkie could retire or lose the election in 3 years, so who are his successors to Clark?

“Things Are Volatile These Days And There Are No Safe Seats” – Andrew Wilkie 2024

The Favourite: Kristie Johnston

What is often touted in political circles is that State MHA Kristie Johnston is lining up to run for Wilkie’s seat in the future. At the 2025 State election she attracted 15% of first preference votes, a +7.5% swing. Being the most senior and highest polling for Clark (State) puts her in a favourable position to run in the future. Her issues align very closely to that of Wilkie & Peter George.

Ms Johnston has also received official endorsement from Wilkie, from back in 2014 when running for Glenorchy Mayor to 2021 where Mr Wilkie campaigned alongside multiple independents.

While federal and state politics vary, the level of support she receives from Wilkie and other figures may be important in a potential election bid in 2028/2031, where without it could mean a much harder time to translate his personal vote.

The Underdog: Federal Labor

With Labor being the official TPP opposition to Wilkie (at 20%), placing almost 10 points ahead of the Liberals gives them a strong chance to place 1st or 2nd depending on how Wilkie’s personal vote, and the electorates norms transfer over to a new independent. Performance could be impacted on talent from preselection could determine some of their performance, however it’s worth mentioning candidates like Marilena Di Fiori being much more established than Labor’s candidate last election, despite having almost half the vote Labor got.

Once Wilkie’s retirement is announced Labor may promote a state MP (like the Rebecca White Lyons Case) or pick a more experienced and established candidate to compete with the likes of Kristie Johnston.

However, state Labor faces a talent strain and electoral pressure following the state election so this later option may be out of the book in the short term.

The Challenger: The Greens

The greens have expanded their presence in the seat, although their figures have plateaued to 13%. While Clark is the most progressive seat, it is unknown how many first preference votes the party could recover after Wilkie’s departure.

despite its vote, it may face preselection issues if the greens decide to run with a “green” (new) candidate or promote a state MP.

The Outsider: Helen Burnet

Following the defection of Helen Burnet from the Greens today, it could be signalling this MPs positioning to stand for the seat of Clark next election, however there are no official statements or signs that this will occur.

Nationals Councillor Louise Elliot, on a news post earlier today speculates that Helen has some interest in “battling out” the seat of Clark, but it remains speculation.

Could Someone Challenge Clark Now?

What has been the norm for the Liberals and especially the Greens is that Clark is not a seat where you weaken the incumbent, but a seat you wait out. What has been the default rule since 2014 is that you don’t challenge Wilkie unless you’re prepared to lose.

For an Independent “successor” such as Johnston, contesting Wilkie could split the voter pool, be compared unfavourably to a proven incumbent and burn goodwill that would be needed in the future.

In addition, voters (especially in Clark) are good at not only differentiating from state/federal politics but also spotting opportunism. If a candidate looks like they are trying to knife Wilkie, rush a succession or treat the seat as an upgrade it could hurt a candidate’s performance in the polls.

What could things look like?

While nothing is certain, it is anticipated that Wilkie will continue on for some time, but at the election without Wilkie we will likely see an independent vote forked by prominent community members and state politicians, how much the vote will split and it’s preferences flows are completely unknown.

Depending on the tenue of the Albanese government, by the time Wilkie’s seat becomes vacant Labor may be facing government fatigue, making picking up new seats not impossible, but a much harder challenge seeing the seat remain firmly with an independent or minor party.